Common Sense: The GOP’s Hard Sell

Several times, I have asserted in a national campaign that there are only four choices for your basic message. Once more, the first is “things are going great, why would we make a change?” Second, you have “there is plenty more to do, but we are headed in the right direction, and it is no time to turn back.” Third, there is “when you look at the numbers, things are better than they might appear.” This is invariably coupled with “we just have to get our message out.” Finally, you have “you may not like us much, but the other guy is even worse when it comes to what is important to you and your family.”

Four Messages, One Remaining Option

For Republicans, the first two, according to every shred of available data, seem to be off the table. As mentioned multiple times, in 50 years of being involved in things political, I have never, ever seen the third message be effective. You are essentially telling the voters they are wrong to feel the way they do. Not a great starting point.

By the process of elimination, that leaves you with the fourth option. Important here is recognizing that the criteria for determining the other side is worse rests with the public, not the political chattering class. Asking voters to start caring about things that are already not driving their opinions has not proven successful in the past, in my view. It is critical that candidates focus on the matters that voters have decided are important and not chase rabbits.

Independence Cannot Be Invented Overnight

When things are not going your way, the temptation is to attempt to create distance between yourself and a President not polling well. That dog simply does not hunt. Either your reputation for independence (see Susan Collins) is already part of your brand, or it is too late to try and establish it now. That has all the odor of desperation.

None of what has been said should be taken as a prediction that you will not see Republicans evidence a new level of willingness to disagree with President Trump. Already, you see GOP Senators balking at the fund that would go to those victimized by politicized prosecutions. From here, this appears to be more about obeying the first rule of holes—when you are in one, stop digging—than an overall move to separate themselves from the President. This does not even include the Tom Tillis’ of the world who gleefully are criticizing the President.

The Fourth Message Will Not Be Pretty

Logic dictates that if anyone wants to send the message that they are fed up with how things are going and do not approve of the President, they will not cast a vote for the Republican candidate, unless that individual has long made clear their independence. Every other Republican seeking office is stuck with our fourth message—the other guys are even worse. You can recognize that this sort of campaign will be ugly and messy without discarding this strategy for those reasons.

America is headed in one of two directions. Either the entire country will come to more closely resemble California, Illinois, and Massachusetts, or it will be more similar to Florida, Idaho, and Texas. This is not the particular fault line I am urging to be used to frame things. However, it should be kept in mind, since it does relate to where ammunition can be found.

Affordability Is Still the Fight

It does not take a rocket scientist to know two things. First, the economy—at the micro level, individuals live their lives—is issue number one, two, and three. This has become the “affordability” issue. Nearly four in five are unhappy with the current condition of the economy. Second, if the economy turned around tomorrow, there would still be a big problem. Historically, it has taken at least eight months of positive economic news before the public accepts it as such. So, where is the opening?

Republicans are in control of the House, Senate, and White House. Blaming the inability to get things done on slim majorities or the filibuster in the Senate is a dead man’s game. Most Americans do not even know what a filibuster is and probably cannot spell it. So, shifting the blame to those dastardly Democrats for the current situation is a poor option.

Own the Moment, Then Make the Case

From where I sit, three things are a must. First, Republicans need to demonstrate a level of empathy and understanding that, for many Americans, it is a real issue whether their paycheck will allow them to meet their obligations. Second, we should accept ownership of the situation. It is unreasonable to expect voters to believe otherwise. Third, to the satisfaction of the voters, GOP candidates need to “prove” that the Democrats would be worse if given the chance.

This approach is one I urged be adopted in 2006. To my chagrin, it was not. Instead, we got the combination of “things are better than you think” and “I am not in President Bush’s hip pocket.” The results—loss of both chambers of Congress—speak for themselves. In a future column, we will attempt to tackle the specifics of what might prove to the voters that Democrats indeed would be worse.

Common Sense: Like it or not, “the other guy is even more terrible” is the only available message that has any chance for Republicans to mitigate the circumstances we face today.