A Georgia Reality Check

The Supreme Court’s recent decision to remove race as the basis for drawing additional majority-minority legislative districts is creating a situation that reverberates far beyond campaigns for the State Legislature or Congress. As if another thing was needed, this decision is serving as an additional impetus for Democrats, in this case especially Black Democrats, to enthusiastically turn out to vote. This is as much about voting against the Republicans as for the Democrats. Consider this Republican very concerned.

Georgia as Ground Zero

The symmetry between what is happening in Georgia today and the birth of the modern Civil Rights movement should not be ignored by those attempting to determine what is likely to happen in the coming days and weeks. In short, Georgia will be Ground Zero for motivating and activating a huge turnout among African Americans. Pretending otherwise borders on insanity.

A High-Stakes Governor’s Race

The Republican nominee for Governor has not been decided. Lt. Governor Burt Jones and the extremely wealthy Rick Jackson are in a runoff that will be held on June 16. Jones has been endorsed by President Trump. Meanwhile, the former Mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms (an African American female), has already secured the Democratic nomination. To say the least, she is an attractive, smart, and articulate candidate. In a good year, with a unified Republican Party, it would be a heavy lift to defeat her. 2026 does not have any evident signs at this point, arguing it will be a great year for Republicans. Hope springs eternal, but reality requires an honest approach to things.

Atlanta’s Civil Rights Legacy

Atlanta, Georgia, is the home of Ebeneezer Baptist Church, an institution put on the map by Martin Luther (Daddy) King, Sr. The church where Martin Luther King, Jr. got his start. Later, one of Dr. King’s proteges, Andrew Young, was elected Mayor. This could go on, but the point would remain the same. The City of Atlanta and the State of Georgia constitute a home rich in history when it comes to Civil Rights.

A National Conversation Comes to Georgia

It does not strike me as an overstatement to predict that every living Civil Rights icon will visit the Peach State during this election. It will not take a long time to translate the election of the next Governor into a metaphor for where the country sees itself when it comes to the topic of race as the focal point. The Summer of Love (2020) saw billions of dollars in damages and lost lives in the name of Black Lives Matter (BLM). With a level of justification, many white Americans felt what they were witnessing was part of the price to be paid for “systemic racism.” The Georgia election in 2026 provides an opportunity for these people to join together for an election, not a riot.

The Numbers Matter

Elections are about numbers. Two questions arise. First, is there any good reason to doubt that Georgia will become Ground Zero for civil rights activists? Assuming it does become the metaphor for a national conversation on race, where does the country as a whole, and Georgia in particular, see itself? Even allowing for facing challenges that must be addressed to continue to make progress on matters of race, have we reached a point where naked appeals by Democrats to have African Americans cast their votes based on their race have mostly run their course, or is there still sufficient anger and energy to center a campaign on racial considerations?

If the answer to the second question is that sufficient anger and energy do exist for a racial focus, the numbers are somewhat daunting for a white Republican. About one-third of Georgia voters are African-Americans. All indications are that gains among black males in 2024 have largely evaporated, but let’s be generous and give the Republicans ten percent of the Black vote. That still means the Democrat starts with 30 percent. That leaves 70 percent up for grabs. To get to 50 percent, the Republican would need to win 71 percent of that remaining 70 percent.

Facts Are Facts

This math does not even factor in the enthusiasm gap that exists where Democrats are far more excited about going to the polls than are Republicans. In the first Georgia primary, although the action was in the Republican Party, in excess of 100,000 more people voted in the Democratic Primary. Again, as Republicans, we might not like any of this, but facts are facts, and numbers are numbers.

Planning for Reality

Can a Republican win the Governor’s Mansion in Georgia this year? Absolutely. Was it ever going to be easy? No. When race becomes the focal point of the campaign, could it make things even tougher for a Republican? Quite possibly. Is there any virtue in planning a campaign based on anything other than actual reality? No, there is not.

Common Sense: The race for Governor in Georgia will become the placeholder for a larger national conversation on where the country sees itself when it comes to race. Republicans would be well-served to be prepared when it comes to pass.