Common Sense: When Politics Becomes a Numbers Game

I’ve made this mistake once, so take what follows with a grain of salt.

A Lesson Learned the Hard Way

In 2015, when the campaign for the Republican nomination was just starting, I was highly critical of what seemed to be the strategy for the Trump campaign at the time. It appeared to me that seemingly insulting Hispanics and turning off soft, suburban, Republican, female voters meant you could not win the office. The thesis of the Op-Ed was that politics was a game of mathematics, that addition was better than subtraction, and the Trump campaign had it all wrong. This is known in the political business as dead ass wrong. However, the concept that it is the math that counts is pure truth in my view.

By the spring of 2016, it was clear Donald Trump was going to be the Republican nominee against Hillary Clinton. After acknowledging that my confidence in these matters had obviously been more reflective of ego than good judgment, I made clear that in a two-way choice (and that is all it ever is), there would be no hesitation on my part to enthusiastically vote for Mr. Trump over Ms. Clinton.

Serving Through the Trump Era

The viewpoint in the above was, and is, sincere. It was my honor and pleasure to serve as the Program Director for the 2016 Convention, as well as Executive Producer for Public Events and Ceremonies for the Inauguration. My contributions to the 2020 and 2024 conventions were more limited, but felt worthwhile. I still feel that way.

The Arithmetic Problem in Congress

So, what is the problem I fear is genuine and real? It is that by having Republican Members of Congress and the Senate either retire or be defeated by a Trump-endorsed candidate, you embolden those folks to be less than lockstep loyal to the White House. With the margin in both chambers as slim as they are, that seems to me to be a formula for having your legislative agenda come to a screeching halt.

Remember, I have already been wrong once on the wisdom of the Trump strategy. At the same time, the concern is still based on arithmetic. Congressman Tom Kean, Jr. has been MIA (due to health reasons, and we wish him a speedy recovery), then there are the seats open due to retirements, seeking another office, or death and others such as Congressman Don Bacon from Nebraska already having made clear he will do however he sees fit combine to put the razor thin Republican majority in the House in a tough spot. Add Congressman Tom Massie (R-KY) to the list after he is defeated in his primary.

Senate Republicans Showing Independence

In the Senate, Senators Collins from Maine, Murkowski from Alaska, and former Majority Leader McConnell from Kentucky have already evidenced independent positions on a multitude of matters. Retiring Tom Tillis (R-NC) appears to be taking a special delight in sticking the pencil in the eye of the White House. Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) was defeated in his primary by a Trump-endorsed candidate. It says here the same is about to happen to John Cornyn in Texas next Tuesday. That is six of the 53 Republicans in the majority. How reasonable is it to expect any of them, especially McConnell, Tillis, Cassidy, and Cornyn, to walk the line for the White House when it comes to tough votes? Senator Cassidy has already announced he will vote against the $1 billion expansion of the East

Wing.

A Party Transformed

There is no longer any reasonable debate as to “whose party it is.” The Republican Party has shifted from one focused on ideology (conservative) and economics to one focused on populism and giving greater attention to social issues. We can debate all day as to the virtue of this being the case. That does not change either who is in charge or what the party has become. Those are facts.

Certainly, compared to the agenda for the four years of the Biden Administration and what the Democrats are offering these days, there is not an iota of doubt as to my preference. Almost without exception, the legislative agenda of the Administration has my support. That is not the point.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

With the generic ballot hovering somewhere between -7 and -11, it is not as though there is wind at the back of our Republican sails. Now, toss in the Republican votes in Congress now controlled by folks with no particular reason to risk their necks for the White House. Where does that leave you? Count the noses.

Common Sense: In a Republican primary, a Trump endorsement is the unquestioned gold standard. That might, unfortunately, translate to a problem on the legislative front. Once more, it is a matter of mathematics.