Remember This: Reality Is Still Reality

My time in politics is of sufficient duration that I have seen most of what can happen on Election Day. Suffice it to say that, in my view, all the analytics, redistricting, and anything else you might think of, to put on the table to predict what will happen on Election Day, do not replace some basic fundamentals. This piece is not about what my preference would be. Anyone who knows me appreciates the fact that I am a strong Republican partisan.

Moreover, what the Democrats have as their stated agenda—add Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. as states, erase the Electoral College, pack the Supreme Court, as well as their economic and social issue agenda—scares the hell out of me. Nevertheless, experience tells me that unless things change, and change rapidly, my Party is headed for a landslide loss in 2026.

The Warning Signs Are Flashing

Previously, I noted the generic ballot (which party do you intend to vote for) stood at -7 to -11. In addition, defeating incumbent Republicans in primaries is a real problem for the President’s legislative agenda. It is hard to see any of these folks taking tough votes for the White House. As is fairly obvious, as Donald Trump goes, so go all Republicans to one degree or another. More on this concept in a later column.

A Major Shift Inside the Base

There is even more frightening data in the mix at this point that signals tough sledding for Republicans. Let’s go from the inside out. It is hardly debatable who constitutes the base vote for President Trump—non-college-educated, whites. In February of 2025, approval for the President among this group stood at +36. A CBS/YouGov poll just released has it at -8. That’s a 44-point shift in the wrong direction! Bill Clinton could not spin that number.

Voters Who Took a Chance Are Pulling Back

The 2024 election showed significant gains for a Republican nominee among groups previously totally off the table. Young voters, African-American men, and Hispanics shocked the chattering class with how they performed. Today, among 18-29 year olds, President Trump’s approval rating stands between 25 and 29 percent, depending on the poll. The same deterioration is seen among African American men and Hispanics. In 2024, the thought was “we will give this guy and his Party a chance.” At least today, according to the data, they are saying, “We really do not like what we’re seeing.”

The Fox News Poll Adds to the Problem

Want more? The Fox News poll taken between May 15 and May 18 confirms deterioration among Republicans. His approval rating is 80 percent. 50 years of doing this tells me that we need it to be 90 percent or more. Overall, his approval rating stands at 39 percent approve, 61 percent disapprove. On handling of the economy, it is a staggering 29-71, with only 24 percent approving of the reaction to the situation. We do not even win on the border at this point, losing 51-49.

Georgia Shows the Enthusiasm Gap

Want even more? How about the turnout in the Georgia primary? Both parties held primaries, including for Governor and Senator. Republicans had strongly contested races for both offices. On the Democratic side, you had an incumbent Senator. For Governor, there were multiple candidates, but former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won with 52 percent, avoiding a run-off. The second- place finisher only got 16 percent. Both GOP contests will go to a run-off. So, what’s the problem? Despite the action being in the Republican primary, 100,000 more people turned out to vote in the Democratic primary. Anyone attempting to gauge the enthusiasm gap needs to look no further.

Pretending Is Not a Strategy

In earlier columns, I have made clear that in my lifetime, nobody has ever won an election based on the combination of “we just need to get our message out” and “if you look at the numbers, things are better than they might appear.” Not. One. Time. When 79 percent of Americans disapprove of the handling of the economy, along with all these other numbers, pretending that Republicans are not in a world of hurt is nothing short of delusional.

The Only Campaign Left

Not on a policy level, I leave that to others, but on a political level, my position is that there is only one campaign to be waged. That is one of a scorched earth that sufficiently proves to the voters (and they get to decide) that when it comes to what is important to you and your family, those guys are even worse. It would not be pretty, but show me another route to anything less than a disaster. We will delve into just what this translates to for individual campaigns next time. For now:

Remember this: Just because reality sucks, it does not mean it is not reality. What do you think?