Common Sense: It’s Always Dangerous to Raise the Pot to the Limit with a Losing Hand

The infamous late Senator from South Carolina, Strom Thurmond, once gave sage political advice when speaking to one of my colleagues.  He said: “Never back a man into a corner.  He’s got nowhere to go.”  Someone should have taken the time to pass along this idea along to Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy prior to his meeting last week with President Donald Trump.

Instead, Zelenskyy seems to have gotten his counsel from a group of Senators, mostly Democrats, who he met with immediately prior to gathering in the Oval Office with the President and Vice President J.D. Vance.  How else to explain what the world witnessed?  It was diplomatic high stakes poker, complete with running a bad bluff.

What is the starting point of the meeting?  First, the United States has already sent Ukraine hundreds of billions of dollars to assist in its conflict with Russia.  The exact number has been the subject of some debate, but, to most normal Americans, whatever it is, it sounds like it is a lot.  There is no secret that Americans are not big fans of foreign aid in the first place.  Right or wrong, they see those dollars sent abroad as being partially responsible for problems right here not getting the attention and resources they deserve.

Second, what is the situation in the region today three years, almost to the date, after Russia went into Ukraine?  You can get virtually any opinion you want to confirm your position, if you listen to the “experts.”  One thing for certain is Americans see the conflict as being at a stalemate, at best.

Third, what was the announced purpose of gathering?  To finalize the details of a deal where the U.S. secured mineral rights in Ukraine in exchange for our further assistance.  Fourth, to what purpose would those new dollars get to Ukraine?  For President Trump, it was to help push Russia to the negotiating table to gain peace in the region.  It appears President Zelenskyy thought it was to attain what it would take to win a clear victory.  This seems to be far more wishful thinking than anything resembling reality.

So, how does President Zelenskyy handle the situation?  Why announce Ukraine will not sign the deal without assurances the U.S. will provide “security guarantees.”  Hardly seems the time or place to bring up new conditions to complete the deal.  Not shockingly, President Trump and Vice President Vance took considerable exception to what the guy in the sweatshirt had to say while in one of the most sacred spaces in America’s political landscape.

Also, not shockingly, the legacy linear media responded in its Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) fashion, labeling our President as being a Russian asset.  Also, not shockingly, the American public sees things much differently.

Chris Wilson of EyesOver, an opinion research firm utilizing AI to generate results proven to be more accurate than traditional polling, just released data showing following the Friday Meltdown. President Trump increased his approval rating by one point; Vice President Vance saw his go up two points.  Zelenskyy, down eight!

There are some lessons to be learned here.  One, faulty assumptions lead to bad strategy and tactics.  No matter who spoke with him, Zelenskyy badly misread the room.  Failing to express gratitude, while challenging the Administration to do more without signing the agreement, is not going to work among the American public.  You know, that group of individuals who do not hang on every word from the legacy mainstream media.  The data shows that.

President Trump knew his voters.  Add to it, the political universe is littered with those who have underestimated him.  He (mostly) calmly explained to President Zelenskyy the goal for the United States was not a massive Ukraine victory.  It was to secure a fair, stable, and long-lasting peace.  As he pointedly observed, “you don’t have the cards.” 

In what world, under these conditions, and having any understanding of President Trump as a person, does it make any sense to essentially “call his bluff.”  President Zelenskyy shoved all his chips to the middle of the table, and President Trump did not blink.  Instead, he proved who had the winning hand.

Common Sense: Do not bet the political ranch against someone unafraid to play the game, especially when he has the voting public on his side.  Someone needs to send President Zelenskyy the memo.