Winston Group: Independents and Women Drove Democrats’ Wins in 2025 Elections

Key Numbers to Know from Tuesday’s Elections

This week’s elections delivered sobering results for Republicans, with voter trends echoing the 2018 midterms. While Democrats performed strongly among key demographics, the data also offers Republicans a year to recalibrate before the 2026 cycle. Here are the most telling takeaways from exit polls in Virginia and New Jersey.

1. Independents Shift Away from the GOP

Independent voters were a decisive factor. In Virginia, they made up 33% of the electorate—Spanberger carried them by 19 points (59–40), matching Biden’s 2020 margin and reversing Glenn Youngkin’s 9-point advantage in 2021. In New Jersey, Sherrill also won independents handily, 56–43.
By comparison, Republicans lost independents by 12 points in 2018 (42–54).

2. Women Move Solidly Toward Democrats

Women’s votes were another driver of Democratic success. Spanberger won women in Virginia by 30 points (65–35), surpassing Biden’s 23-point edge in 2020. Sherrill carried women in New Jersey by 25 points (62–37).
The national Republican gap among women had narrowed during Biden’s presidency—down to six points in 2024—but Tuesday’s returns indicate that advantage has eroded.

3. Candidates Outperform Party Brands

Both Spanberger and Sherrill outpaced their party’s image, winning a notable share of voters who held unfavorable views of Democrats—20% and 17%, respectively. Their personal favorability ratings were also stronger than their GOP opponents’, signaling that authenticity and moderate appeal remain crucial in swing areas.

4. Democrats Gained Among Economy Voters

In Virginia, 48% of voters identified the economy as their top issue—Spanberger carried them 63–36. In New Jersey, taxes (35%) and the economy (32%) dominated. Ciattarelli won among tax-focused voters (62–37), but Sherrill captured economy voters by a commanding 66–33 margin.

Winston concludes that while 2025’s results were a wakeup call, they also serve as a roadmap for GOP course correction heading into 2026.