Holiday Spending Surges Despite Economic Gloom

Record Spending Tops Black Friday and Cyber Monday

Shoppers may be feeling uneasy about the economy, but that didn’t stop Americans from pulling out their wallets over the holiday shopping weekend. New data shows consumers set record spending levels both online and in stores, even as inflation and tight budgets continue to weigh on many households.

Adobe Analytics reports Americans spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, a 9.1% jump from last year. Mastercard SpendingPulse found overall Black Friday spending — including in-store — rose 4.1%. Cyber Monday was projected to break another record, with Adobe forecasting $14.2 billion in online sales, up more than 6% from 2024.

The strong spending helped prop up an economy grappling with Trump administration tariffs, slower job growth, and rising corporate layoffs.

Inflation Cuts Into the Holiday Cheer

Beneath the headline numbers, analysts say the picture is more complicated. Retail discounts aren’t as generous this year, causing shoppers to get less for more. Salesforce finds average selling prices rose 7% year-over-year, while consumers bought 2% fewer items at checkout.

“A lot of growth is being driven by higher prices,” said Neil Saunders of GlobalData, noting that retail volume growth sits at just 0.3% — barely above flat. Inflation ticked back up to 3% in September, further reducing how far holiday dollars stretch.

Many families are adjusting by buying fewer items, waiting for staggered promotions, or focusing on big-ticket purchases that offer the best value.

A K-Shaped Holiday Season

Consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy, and this year’s trends reveal widening divides. Deloitte reports three-quarters of shoppers expect higher holiday prices, and a Federal Reserve analysis shows the top 10% of earners accounted for nearly half of all spending this year. Middle- and lower-income households, meanwhile, are mostly keeping pace with inflation rather than outpacing it.

Experts call this a K-shaped economy — luxury brands and discount retailers are thriving, while everyone in the middle tightens their belts.