Winston Group: Economy Likely to Drive 2026 Midterms

The Economy Remains the Top Issue

According to this week’s WG Discussion Points from The Winston Group, the economy is likely to be the defining issue of the 2026 midterm elections.

The report argues that voters entered the current administration expecting progress on inflation, wages and the overall economy. However, new polling suggests many Americans do not believe enough progress has been made.

Voters See Limited Progress

A recent Winston Group survey found that 60% of voters say the economy is not getting better at all. Another 26% believe conditions are improving, but not quickly enough, while only 11% say the pace of improvement is acceptable.

Among independent voters, the outlook is even more pessimistic, with 65% saying the economy is not improving—an 11-point increase since January.

Inflation and Cost of Living Continue to Weigh on Voters

Inflation also remains a major concern.

Nearly two-thirds of voters (66%) say inflation is getting worse, while only 16% believe it is improving. At the same time, 73% say the cost of living is rising faster than their wages, reinforcing concerns about household affordability.

The report notes that recent Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows cumulative price increases have now outpaced cumulative wage growth since President Trump’s inauguration, reversing an earlier trend.

Political Implications Heading Into November

The memo concludes that economic perceptions will likely play a central role in the midterms. It suggests Republicans will need to demonstrate measurable economic progress over the coming months while making their signature legislative accomplishments more meaningful to voters before Election Day.

The report is accompanied by Episode 3 of the Discussion Points Podcast, which examines how economic conditions and presidential job approval have historically shaped midterm election outcomes.