Common Sense: A Hard Truth for Both Parties After 2025

Wisdom from the Political Trenches

One of the few benefits of growing old within the political community is that it is possible to remain very much involved without being deep into the weeds of owning the particulars of what is happening in very many, if at any, individual campaigns. It is how you come to receive the less-than-grand title of senior advisor. With that introduction, this old man will tell you three things to take away from the 2025 elections.

Don’t Believe Your Own BS

There is nothing new or insightful about this observation, but every election demands recognition of the truth of this old adage. More often than not, the guilty party is the one that won the last election, especially if it was a decisive victory. Hubris is generally too strong a term for an accurate description of things. However, people who are puffed up from a victory tend to believe the public continues to support them, no matter the data associated with measuring opinion or actual behavior.

More than once, I have indulged the tendency, always to my eventual chagrin. While there is plenty of data that says the public approves of particular Trump-Republican policies, and that they have very
negative feelings towards Democrats as a party, there was also ample information that made any expectations by Republicans for a good night on Tuesday nothing but wishful thinking.

For instance, take the impact of DOGE and the government shutdown in Virginia. Having spent nearly a half-century living in Northern Virginia, it shocked me little that workers losing their jobs working for the number one employer in the region, the federal government, were less than thrilled with reducing the size and scope of that federal government. On a recent visit, I did not encounter a single person in a professional setting who did not personally know someone feeling the negative impact of the situation.

Even today, when you look at the map of the Old Dominion, it appears to be ruby red. All this means is that the population centers overwhelmingly went to the Democrats, more than enough for a clean sweep of the three statewide offices, as well as Democrats winning a super majority in the General Assembly.

Meanwhile, Republicans seemed to take a “surely voters will awaken to their senses and reject the nonsense the Democrats are offering.” In the face of multiple negative stories in the media concerning the Democratic statewide candidates, voters still loudly said to the Republican Party: “You are not hearing or listening to us.” Democrats were seen as caring more about what was on the voters’ minds.

A kissing cousin to believing your own BS is to overreact to the negative results of the last election. No Republican has won the governorship in Virginia with a Republican in the White House since Linwood Holton in 1969. New Jersey has become a reliably blue state. For a Republican to win, the stars have to be aligned. That does not happen often. In New York City, a socialist ran against an unpopular former governor and a fringe Republican candidate. The socialist won.

The point here is to avoid moving forward with a view that, in 10 months, the Republican Party and President Trump have become toxic brands. Pay attention, but be smart about it.

Republicans Like High Turnout Elections

As far back as the 1990s, the legendary Haley Barbour (then Chairman of the Republican National Committee) emphasized that Republicans did better down ballot in Presidential years than in the midterms. With data in hand, he proved it was the low-intensity Republicans who stayed home. This is even more true about elections in the odd years. What Chairman Barbour espoused then remains true now.

There Is No Longer a Line Progressives Refuse to Cross

Astounding percentages of self-described progressives condone the use of violence to achieve political objectives. It is one thing for the base to be this sure as to the rightness of their cause. It is quite another thing when respected professionals, including academics, join with that base. Until now, nobody even considered a legitimate candidate doing it.

You might think there is a line here. You would be wrong. In Virginia, the Democratic candidate for Attorney General (the state’s highest law enforcement position), as a sitting member of the General Assembly, literally conveyed that he would like to put a bullet through the head of an opponent in the chamber. While at it, he added the delight he would take in including his two children.

If this is not a bridge too far, what is? That all serious adults, especially including progressives, did not see fit to demand the candidate, Jay Jones, step aside speaks volumes. The rationalizations sicken me.

As has proven the case with identity politics, it is just a matter of time until the opponents to progressives join in calling for the violent death of their political adversaries to achieve their objectives. In the meantime, please spare me any lectures about the moral superiority of progressives. In my mind, they have surrendered any moral authority to do so. That Jones won is a stain that will remain with progressives and Democrats for many years. All those who could not bear to see members of their families during the holidays and who voted for Trump in 2024 should be ashamed of themselves for voting for Jones. It is disgusting beyond words.