Remember This: Not Much Lasts Forever, and There Are Reasons for It

My favorite sport, one that I played for three years in college, is baseball. This week,
Major League Baseball (MLB) and the giant sports network ESPN announced that
after 2025, their relationship would be ending. We will leave it for another day
providing focus on why this further proves MLB is run by a group of brain-dead
individuals. The reality is that our “National Pastime” is hardly that any more. That
got to me to thinking about what the forces are behind major changes taking place.

Seems to me there are a handful of reasons, which are sometimes intertwined. If you
go back to the 1930’s, hard as it might be to believe, the three major sports were
baseball, boxing, and horse racing. The NFL, the elephant in the room today, was
hardly a blip on the radar screen. Without getting into great detail, I would attribute
this evolution to the combination of the changing tastes of the public and the
stupidity on the part of those sports experiencing a reduction in popularity. So,
changing tastes are one big thing to always keep in mind. Think back to the American
dolls that were so popular years ago. The public just moved on. Stupidity is never a
good idea.

Probably the most significant factor to keep in mind is technology. Leaving aside the
greed of the cable television industry, the new digital technology driving streaming
television simply renders cable television a dying anachronism. People want to access
content on their own terms, not what the legacy linear television is capable of
delivering. Radio gave way to television, not because of any marketing or business
decisions. The world preferred pictures with sound over sound only. Land lines gave
way to mobile phones. There are hundreds of these examples. When you can get
more of what you want, at an acceptable price point, new technology is undefeated.

Another factor, especially in politics, is that one faction simply runs out of gas at a
point where they have pushed both their point of view to the limits, and the public
does not like the “results.” I would argue this is what is happening in American
politics today. It is important to note this is not a new phenomenon for us. Looking
only at the American experience, this has occurred multiple times. Examining only
our more recent past, when unfettered capitalism produced monopolies, child labor,
etc., the reform movement, embodied by Theodore Roosevelt, seized the moment.
Later isolationism gave way to a willingness to fight World War I because of what
Americans agreed what was at stake. A government unwilling to involve itself in a
meaningful fashion when the country was hit by the Great Depression, produced
FDR who to give us the New Deal. Years of trying to accommodate the Soviet Union
with little success helped to produce Ronald Reagan. From the hostage release on the
day he was inaugurated, to bringing the Soviet Union to its knees, to so much more,
the world knew Ronald Reagan meant it when he said it.

Moving to today, my argument would be the progressive movement has pressed its
point of view so far with results Americans do not approve, that you generate much
of the energy behind Make America Great Again. No doubt, the leadership of
Donald Trump has given this movement its voice. For now, this means the
progressive movement is stuck in place with America headed in a new direction.

This situation is one that must be understood to change the flight path of American
politics. When progressives gather to ponder their navels, the common refrain is the
problem centers on the combination of message and messenger. That is simply not
the case. Their problem is policy.

Anytime there are 80-20 issues, and your team is on the 20% side, you could have
Saint Paul as your messenger and Ernest Hemmingway writing your message. You
will still get your butt kicked. Plus, when you utilize government to impose the 20%
position, leaving aside how ridiculous this renders the “save democracy” message, you
are begging to put a new government with a new approach into place. That is exactly
what happened in 2024.

Here is the good news for the liberal-progressive devotees. To some degree, they
have already seen this movie. In 1992, after suffering defeat at the polls in 1980, 1984,
and 1988, they turned to the more moderate, by comparison to the other available
options, Bill Clinton and won. They did this at a time when the country was enduring
not great economic times, and there was the sense that President George H.W. Bush
did not get the joke.

Sometimes, you are on the losing side due to changing tastes. Other times, it is an
advancement in technology. You cannot do much about those things. The times you
push a point of view to its extremes, when your point of view is not producing the
results desired by the voters, especially by strong majorities, you are asking to be
defeated in a Democratic Republic. Toss in a healthy dose of stupidity and arrogance,
and the odds of failure is a near guarantee.

Remember this. The world is constantly changing. In the political world, successful
navigation depends on not going too far, combined with delivering the results desired
by the voting public. Having one of these happen badly, much less both of them,
means your odds of success are small to non-existent. Understand the simple factors
associated with major changes. Identify the ones where you have something to say
about things and where you do not. Changing tastes or new technology? Not much
you can do. Pushing an extreme point of view coupled with ignoring the results of
what you are advocating? When you add are stupid and arrogant, the game is over.
What do you think?