Media Hype vs. Midterm Reality

What is it about media coverage of midterm elections? Do they really need to behave as though very predictable political outcomes somehow constitute results that are dramatic and historic, ones that shed great light on what will happen in the next (Presidential) election? Very telling is how little the actual results count when it comes to their analysis.

It is factually accurate to say the corporate media overwhelmingly views outcomes through the prism of putting the most favorable light on Democrats and the Progressive agenda.

Virginia as Exhibit A

Take the 2025 elections in Virginia. Republican Glen Youngkin could not seek another term as Governor due to the State Constitution. It is true Republicans ended up with a nominee who was weak and ran a miserable campaign. The Democrats won. Proof positive that Virginians reject anything where Donald Trump has a role. As the legendary Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend.”

In an earlier column, I mentioned the last time Republicans won the Governor’s mansion in the Old Dominion with a Republican in the White House was when Linwood Holton did it in 1969. Technically, that is not true. Mills Godwin also won in 1973 after he switched parties. Still, that meant a 52-year trend was present on Election Day. The stunner would have been if the Republican won.

What the Media Downplayed

Meanwhile, in the race for Attorney General, the Republican incumbent was defeated by Jay Jones. During the campaign, it became public that Jones had communicated with a fellow member of the General Assembly about the desire to see the Republican Speaker shot and killed. Oh, and he wanted to include killing his children while the mother watched. The candidate for Governor, along with the legacy media, clutched their pearls for a minute, but did very little to see that he was removed from the ballot.

An elected official running for the chief legal officer, sending obscene emails such as Jones did and then actually winning. Now, that is historic. Putting a bright light on this behavior would have impacted the outcome. Watching the coverage, you would think Jones had survived a kerfuffle. Keep a straight face and tell me a Republican could have gotten away with this. Yet, the “voters hate Trump” analysts had a field day.

The Predictable Midterm Pattern

Now, let us fast forward to the 2026 mid-term elections. What was formerly known as the mainstream media is breathlessly “reporting” that the outcome could be terrible for Republicans. Well, duh. It is not guaranteed, but history would indicate any other result would be rare.

How often does the party controlling the White House gain seats in Congress? Since 1932, it is safe to say not very often. In 1934, with FDR in the Oval Office, Democrats gained nine seats in both the House and Senate. At the time, the country was in the midst of the Great Depression, with Republicans urging a return to policies in place prior to the economic disaster—not a message warmly received by the voters.

In 1998, Democrats gained seats (five) in the House only. Americans were worn out by the drama surrounding the impeachment and trial of Bill Clinton. His steadfast refusal to blink led to an American public that just wanted the problem to go away. If that meant Republicans should just drop it, that was better than prolonging the agony.

In 2002, barely a year after 9-11, Republicans gained eight seats in the House and two in the Senate. George W. Bush took a victory lap.

History Tells a Different Story

What generally happens? Let’s go to the tape. In 1982, Republicans lost 24 House seats, deepening Democratic control of the chamber. The GOP did maintain its majority in the Senate. You would have thought the idea of Ronald Reagan winning a second term was a bad joke. Yet, in 1984, he was able to carry 49 states in his victory.

In 1994, Republicans won control of both legislative chambers for the first time in more than 40 years. Democrats lost a whopping 52 House seats and eight Senate seats. Yet, in 1996, Bill Clinton was elected to a second term.

Just four years after the 2002 midterms, George Bush’s standing with the public had changed just a tad. In 2006, Republicans lost 30 House seats and six Senate seats, returning control to the Democrats.

The grand prize goes to none other than Barack Obama. In 2010, Republicans gained 63 House seats and six Senate seats, returning Republicans to control. Once again, however, that did not prevent Obama from winning a second term. In 2014, Democrats lost 13 House seats and nine Senate seats. For those keeping score at home, that is a total of 76 House seats and 15 Senate seats.

Midterms Don’t Predict Presidential Outcomes

As you watch events unfold in 2026, remember we can predict in advance what the coverage will be should Republicans lose seats. The corporate media will breathlessly report Americans are totally rejecting President Trump and his leadership, portending what will happen in 2028. Never mind that even the most casual review of midterm elections would lead most reasonable and sane people to a different conclusion.

President Trump cannot seek re-election in 2028. However, given the results achieved by Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama, I think that no matter the results in 2026, if history is any indicator, they will have very little to do with what happens in 2028.

Ignoring enduring historical trends hardly seems a good place to start an analysis of anything, including midterm elections.

Remember This

Remember This: When the “experts” (in the media and political profession) overstate the importance of the 2026 results (no matter who wins), it is both predictable and certainly overstates the connection to 2028. The truth is that this is an old movie, and we have seen it multiple times before.