From Populism to Progressives: How Cultural Overreach is Redefining American Politics

Back in the day, one of the more prominent members of New York City’s chattering class, film critic Paulene Kael, was at the famous Algonquin Hotel discussing the 1972 election, one that had been won by Richard Nixon by winning 49 of 50 states. Her actual quote was: “I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon” (not often cited “nobody” version).

Whether it was one or none, it is pretty clear her opinions and the world she lived in were not shared by the vast majority of Americans. The political lines at that time were defined by ideology—liberals versus conservatives. Now, the lines are populist versus elitists. It is true that virtually all elitists are at the edge of what defines liberalism, otherwise known as progressives. What is not true is that virtually all populists are conservatives in any sense of the term as it has been defined for a long time.

If basic liberals (Chuck Schumer) are to win out over progressives (Bernie Sanders) they have to do two things. First, instead of bitching about no longer owning the field, the ball, and the referees, spend some time understanding the battle-lines have changed. Second, get a grasp on who is (finally) winning the argument.

In 2016, Trump won with a lot of the “hold their noses” voters. By 2020, they were mostly gone from the Trump vote. By 2024, they were essentially nonexistent. Yet, he still won and did so convincingly. How? By resetting the dividing lines, and putting together a new coalition elated to vote for their candidate. Clinging to an outdated paradigm, the best the Democrats could do was put forward Vice President Harris. The “hold my nose” vote was reversed. As someone who has been doing this for 50 plus years, all I can say is this stuff matters.

Meanwhile, progressives are consumed by the only four reasons that exist in their minds which could possibly account for the outcome. First, too many mistakes were made by the campaign. Second, the election was not winnable. Third, the American public just was not smart enough to know how good we all have it. Fourth, the voters were not good enough to vote for a woman of color. Hopefully, those reading this do not need to be reminded the countless times the above can be verified. Rather than take up previous space, take my word on this one.

This advice comes from someone who is most definitely not among those holding their nose. Program Director for the 2016 Convention and Director for Public Ceremonies and events for the 2017 Inauguration. That would make it completely reasonable for progressives to tell me to go pound sand, but here it goes.

Stop pretending the cultural wars are going your way. You overplayed your hand. There are a lot of people who are fine with gay marriage but not drag time for kindergartners. I can even accept biological males acting like they are actually females, if it makes them feel good, but not good with letting those who feel that way, at the age of 15, getting to go in the shower with biological females. I could go on, but the point is really simple. What you are demanding of voters to be on your side is increasingly being viewed as stupid and perhaps evil. They believe this insanity helps account for so much of what is happening in their lives—inflation, crime, and immigration—which leads them to say, enough already. For my team, I hope you double down. Understand who is winning on a large scale basis. Understand reality and why it is so.