When Preseason Polls Become January Fairy Tales

The Annual Ritual of False Certainty

Every August, the NCAA preseason football poll arrives like a back-to-school catalog: glossy, overconfident, and bearing no resemblance to the reality that will unfold by late September, if not sooner. In this age of the transfer portal and Name Image and Likeness (NIL), how could it not? It remains the perfect spark that ignites greatness or the business end of a rifle aimed squarely at your hopes.

Not convinced … ask any Penn State fan.

Tradition, Optimism, and a Cocktail Napkin Heisman

The poll is a tradition as old as that annual donation to the Nittany Lion Club and as reliable as a preseason Heisman shortlist scribbled on a cocktail napkin at Champs.

This year’s poll, released with the usual fanfare and self-congratulation of a royal decree, assured us, without any doubt, that the national championship would be a coronation for one of the usual college football aristocracies: Alabama, Georgia. Ohio State or Michigan. This year, the poll also included Penn State.

When Destiny Meets Reality

Back in August, analysts assured us that the preseason Top 10 was destiny as if the rest existed solely to provide a scenic backdrop.

By October, the preseason poll looked less like a prediction and more like a clay tablet dug up in Mesopotamia, which was intriguing, yet irrelevant, and written by people who clearly had no clue what was coming.

By December, it was performance art.

By January, it was a fairy tale.

The preseason poll didn’t just miss; it whiffed so dramatically that it reads like satire.

Why Chaos Is the Point

However, that is the beauty of college football.

It promises certainty and delivers chaos. It sells inevitability and hands you a plot twist. It gives you a preseason poll in August, and a national championship in January that makes you wonder if the entire enterprise is held together by blind optimism, White Out mysticism, and the annual ritual of pretending the schedule is “favorable.”

The Experts Miss, the Committee Shrugs

The legion of credentialed blueblood writers and podcasters fumbled, while the playoff committee continues to pretend it understands its own convoluted criteria.

In a most poetic twist worthy of Shakespeare, two teams nobody ranked and everyone dismissed as “rebuilding” will square off for the national championship Monday night.

A Championship That Feels Like a Practical Joke

This improbable game feels like the sport is pulling a prank just to see if you will still tune in.

Indiana is playing in its first national championship game in program history. The game will cap off a remarkable two-year run in which Indiana went from one of the worst teams in college football to the best.

NIL, the Portal, and a Powerhouse Built Overnight

With NIL, the transfer portal, and the coaching carousel, Indiana built a powerhouse. To raise funds, they enlisted billionaire Mark Cuban, Indiana class of 1981, who donated a “big number” in December 2024. All four programs in this year’s CFP semifinals used starting quarterbacks from the transfer portal, with Indiana winning the lottery as Fernando Mendoza was awarded the Heisman Trophy during this historic run.

Since then, Indiana has landed TCU quarterback Josh Hoover to replace Mendoza next season, with more moves to come as the portal opens again on Jan. 16.

Miami Cashes In on the Madness

With their 31–27 semifinal win over No. 6 Ole Miss, the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes earned their national championship berth and a hefty $20 million to boot. The ACC is the only conference that permits members to keep 100% of the money earned during the playoffs, while the Big Ten splits the money equally among conference members.

The Big Ten’s Financial Windfall

The Big Ten is, without question, the top winner of this year’s college football playoff. Not only will they have a team in the national championship again, but they will net $42 million in payouts thanks to Indiana ($20 million), Oregon ($14 million), and Ohio State ($8 million).

The Ultimate Irony

Hard Rock Stadium, home to both the Miami Hurricanes and the NFL’s Miami Dolphins, will host the first national championship ever played in a participating team’s own venue. Miami will be the “visiting team” and will pocket an extra $3 million to cover travel expenses since they are home.

Such a striking irony can only be attributed to a sport held together by polling, nonstop branding, and a deadpan commitment that all of this makes perfect sense.