The Economy’s Looking Up—Unless Trump’s Trade War Heats Up

The U.S. economy is proving more resilient than expected, according to a new Wall Street Journal survey showing economists have lowered the odds of a recession from 45% in April to 33% today. With job growth outpacing forecasts and inflation cooling to a four-year low, confidence in the labor market and consumer spending is rising. But looming threats—namely President Trump’s renewed tariff push and immigration crackdown—are keeping forecasters cautious. While the short-term outlook has improved, many warn that policy volatility could still tip the scales.