Retailers’ Holiday Hiring to Hit Lowest Level Since the Great Recession

Seasonal Jobs Drop Amid Economic Uncertainty

Holiday hiring by U.S. retailers is expected to fall to its lowest level in more than 15 years, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers are projected to be hired this year — a steep decline from the 442,000 added in 2024. NRF CEO Matthew Shay said the slowdown reflects a “softening and slowing labor market,” compounded by a prolonged government shutdown that has disrupted key economic reporting.

Spending Stays Strong Despite Fewer Jobs

While retailers are tightening budgets and cutting back on seasonal staff, holiday spending is expected to soar to record levels — between $1.1 trillion and $1.2 trillion. That marks the first time total spending would surpass $1 trillion, even with economic headwinds such as inflation, tariffs, and low consumer sentiment. “Consumers have defied expectations,” Shay said, noting that households are prioritizing festive spending despite broader financial strain.

A Shifting Retail Landscape

Experts point to demographic changes and policy shifts as key reasons behind the evolving jobs market. As Baby Boomers retire and immigration policies remain restrictive, retailers may simply not need as many workers as before. NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews emphasized that uncertainty remains a major factor: “When businesses face uncertain environments, they put things on hold.”

Even with AI-driven investment helping to buoy the economy, analysts warn that optimism may be masking deeper cracks in the labor market. This holiday season, the U.S. retail industry faces an unusual paradox — record consumer spending, but record-low hiring.