Prices vs. Wages: The Gap Voters Are Watching

Winston Group: Why Voters Are Still Focused on Affordability

According to David Winston of the Winston Group, the current debate over affordability isn’t about a sudden political narrative shift—it reflects a concern voters have been carrying for years. While some Republicans believe Democrats’ recent emphasis on cost of living is strategic, Winston Group discussion points show the issue has been “hiding in plain sight” since early 2021.

Last fall’s election made voters’ intentions clear: they wanted a change in economic direction. President Trump and Republicans were handed a straightforward mandate—address inflation and reduce the pressure families feel from rising costs. Importantly, voters are not only measuring progress since January 2025, but comparing today’s economy to January 2021, when policies under President Biden coincided with the highest inflation in four decades.

A Clear Way to Measure What Families Feel

To illustrate this, the Winston Group uses a “Presidential Inflation Rate” methodology, comparing the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the CPI in the inaugural month of the Biden administration. The chart tracks three lines: cumulative price increases, growth in weekly wages, and the gap between the two.

Prices Outpaced Paychecks Under Biden

The data shows cumulative inflation under Biden reached 21.4 percent and has continued rising to roughly 23.9 percent. Over the same period, weekly wages increased just 16.7 percent. The result was a 4.8 percent loss in purchasing power—meaning households fell behind even as paychecks grew.

Progress, But Is It Enough?

Since President Trump’s return to office, that gap has narrowed from 4.8 percent to about 3.2 percent. While that signals improvement, Winston Group discussion points raise a critical question: at what point do voters actually feel relief? When families shop for groceries or pay household bills, does this progress translate into real confidence?

Trend or Anomaly?

Finally, questions remain about recent data showing a drop in prices, which even the New York Fed chair noted may reflect differences in data collection. Whether that decline signals a lasting trend or a one-month anomaly remains an open question.