Democrats Expand Lead in 2026 Congressional Forecast, New Rasmussen Poll Shows

Democrats are gaining momentum heading into the 2026 midterms, according to a new national Rasmussen Reports survey. Conducted July 13–17 and 20 among 2,288 likely voters, the poll shows 46% would vote for the Democratic candidate if the congressional election were held today, compared to 42% who would back the Republican. Four percent say they would vote for a third-party candidate, and 8% remain undecided. With a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, the results point to a modest but notable shift toward Democrats since earlier in the year.

Support among key demographics appears to be driving the trend. Women favor Democrats 49% to 38%, while men prefer Republicans 46% to 43%. Voters aged 18–29 back Democrats by a wide margin—48% to 33%—while Republicans do better among voters aged 40 to 64. Among voters over 65, Democrats hold a 50% to 43% advantage.

Racial divides remain consistent with previous trends. Black voters favor Democrats by a wide margin, 64% to 24%, while white voters are slightly more likely to support Republicans, 45% to 44%. Hispanic voters lean toward Democrats at 45% to 42%.

Party loyalty is strong on both sides. Eighty-six percent of Democrats say they would support their party’s candidate, compared to 85% of Republicans who say the same. Among voters who identify with neither party, 40% say they would vote Democrat, 33% Republican, and 17% remain unsure—a group that may prove pivotal in competitive districts.

Conservatives continue to back Republicans heavily, with 73% saying they’d vote for the GOP. Among moderates, however, Democrats lead 52% to 30%. Liberals overwhelmingly back Democratic candidates, 85% to 8%.

Income and education breakdowns reveal additional insights. Democrats lead among voters earning less than $30,000 and more than $200,000 per year. Republicans perform strongest among middle-income groups but don’t hold commanding leads. Voters with graduate degrees favor Democrats 53% to 38%, while the GOP fares better among those with high school diplomas or some college experience.

The poll also reveals how voter preference tracks with views on the country’s direction and recent presidential votes. Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, 86% support Democratic congressional candidates. Eighty-three percent of Donald Trump voters support Republicans. Those who didn’t vote or are unsure about their 2024 choice break more evenly or remain uncertain.

While just 35% of respondents believe the country is headed in the right direction, a majority—55%—say it’s on the wrong track. That pessimism could influence voter turnout and enthusiasm on both sides.

The 4-point lead for Democrats may seem narrow, but in a divided electorate, it’s a meaningful signal. Democrats are showing strength among women, young voters, and independents—key voting blocs that helped sway previous elections. Still, with over a year to go and many voters undecided, both parties face a critical window to sharpen their messages and lock in support. As the 2026 cycle heats up, every percentage point will matter.